India’s covid-19 crisis is a dire warning for all countries

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ASPartOfMe
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01 May 2021, 6:18 am

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Madhukar Pai is a professor of epidemiology and global health at McGill University. Manu Prakash is an associate professor of bioengineering at Stanford University’s Center for Innovation in Global Health.

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The covid-19 crisis in India is a massive setback for the entire world. The scale of the nation’s surge is a warning not only for its neighboring countries, which are also experiencing sharp increases in cases, but also for countries around the globe. If we do not heed this warning and work on vaccine equity, we risk a forever pandemic with long-term cycles of lockdowns, economic damage and constant fear.

India is reporting more than 380,000 cases and 3,500 deaths daily. Both are underestimates. The Indian health-care system is completely overwhelmed. It is impossible to find hospital beds. Supplies such as oxygen are incredibly scarce, and there is a huge backlog with diagnostic testing. Many people with sick family members and friends in India — including us — are checking in on them. This time around, younger people are sick and, as is always the case, the poor are hit the hardest.

The devastating second wave in India is the result of a perfect storm: a failure to plan for a second wave; premature relaxation of public health measures; large gatherings; insufficient vaccination coverage; and newer variants such as B.1.1.7 and B.1.617 that are highly transmissible and potentially more severe.

India has 95,000 intensive care beds and 48,000 ventilators. By mid-May, it is projected that the country will need 340,000 beds and more than 700,000 ventilators. Rural India has few of these and is already hit hard. India needs the global community’s support to survive this crisis.

Even as India struggles to get the second wave under control, cases are surging among India’s neighbors, including Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. While the exact variant driving the new surges among India’s neighbors is unclear, the B.1.617 variant has already spread to more than 18 countries.

Other countries in South Asia have far less resources and medical infrastructure compared with India. Nepal, for example, has 1,486 ICU beds and 634 ventilators , and Nepal’s health ministry is anticipating a need to treat 15,000 ICU patients by July. Bangladesh, home to 163 million people, has only 1,134 covid-19 ICU beds. Pakistan, the fifth-largest country in the world, has fewer than 4,000 ventilators. India’s neighbors can ill afford the kind of devastation India is experiencing.

Vaccination coverage in these countries is too low to prevent surges. Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal have vaccinated 1 percent, 3.5 percent and 7 percent of their populations, respectively, with a single dose. And vaccination numbers are not likely to ramp up soon, given that India is now prioritizing domestic vaccination efforts.

Another truly frightening scenario is the spread of the more transmissible and lethal variants to low-income countries, especially on the South American and African continents. The uncontrolled outbreak in Brazil (driven by the aggressive P.1 variant) has already posed a threat for many South American countries.

Most countries in Africa have limited health infrastructure and cannot possibly deal with the severe disease typical of the newer variants. As the variant that emerged in South Africa has shown, the continent has limited capacity for such surges. It is estimated that there are fewer than 2,000 ventilators across 41 African countries. Ten African countries have none at all.

It has become painfully clear that newer variants of the virus have transformed the nature of this pandemic. We cannot just vaccinate rich countries and hope that we will be safe. The only way to end this pandemic is to end it everywhere. Otherwise, we will forever play whack-a-mole with a constantly mutating virus.

History will not be kind to us if we do not ensure global access to covid-19 vaccines. The rollout of highly effective vaccines in record time is one of the greatest triumphs of science. But the hoarding of vaccines and roadblocks around sharing raw materials and information on how to make these vaccines globally will be seen as our biggest strategic mistake.

Global leaders must collaborate, waive intellectual property rights, share technology, and allow and support more countries to manufacture vaccines. Sharing of the mRNA vaccine recipe is critical, since these vaccines can be quickly redesigned to keep up with the newer variants.


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kitesandtrainsandcats
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01 May 2021, 7:43 am

I have friends in India. A few have covid. Concern for them is high, very high.


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03 May 2021, 11:01 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
Quote:
Global leaders must collaborate, waive intellectual property rights, share technology, and allow and support more countries to manufacture vaccines. Sharing of the mRNA vaccine recipe is critical, since these vaccines can be quickly redesigned to keep up with the newer variants.


Solution.

Who's gonna make them, though? :?

It'd take hundreds of Millions of people taking to the streets to protest our own governments to do the right thing. If they feel their political power is at stake if they don't, because they'll be voted out, then they Might do the right thing. But otherwise major political donors/Big pharma are going to tell them what to do - which is what is most profitable.. licencing/selling vaccines etc vs. doing whatever it takes to resolve the pandemic. These sociopaths couldn't give a flying F if Millions of people die if it means they get to make Hundreds of Millions or Billions of dollars.

And do people have the will to protest our governments to help others? Or do people revert to some protectionist bs and say "No, we need all the vaccines we can get for ourselves!" Short sightedly not even realizing we can all have vaccines if they're allowed to be manufactured everywhere. But there's money to be made And people are stupid, sooo, I'd bet on people dying and Big pharma cashing in over government's bending to the will of the people they govern and helping out others. I'd LIKE to be proven wrong, though.


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04 May 2021, 4:44 am

So what caused the crisis in India? Who do we blame?


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04 May 2021, 8:01 am

RetroGamer87 wrote:
So what caused the crisis in India? Who do we blame?


Religious festivals.


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04 May 2021, 8:20 am

RetroGamer87 wrote:
So what caused the crisis in India? Whom do we blame?
Religion and ignorance ... but I repeat myself ...


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04 May 2021, 8:23 am

RetroGamer87 wrote:
So what caused the crisis in India? Who do we blame?


Overcrowdedness in much of the country.


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04 May 2021, 10:17 am

RetroGamer87 wrote:
So what caused the crisis in India? Who do we blame?


I watched a handful of news clips.

Complacency and underestimating Covid, mostly. Basically, the first wave wasn't so bad.. people made a huge effort to combat it. Then people assumed that they were in the clear, that it wouldn't and couldn't get so bad.. and while they were busy pretending it was A-okay to get back to life as mostly normal and hold huge gatherings, a mutated variant popped up and began to spread like wildfire. Now their hospital system, and that of neighbouring countries experiencing similar surges, is completely overwhelmed and at Least 3,500 people/day are dying - and that's likely an under count, who knows what the real number is.

They are vaccinating people, but not at a fast enough rate to beat this. They need WAY more oxygen and ventilators etc as well as vaccines.

It's pretty gross that there are probably facilities in India (and elsewhere) that could be manufacturing vaccines that aren't because they're not allowed to/aren't licensed to/can't afford to etc. Big pharma would rather let Millions of people die than give away the recipes for their vaccines.


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04 May 2021, 10:24 am

goldfish21 wrote:
... It's pretty gross that there are probably facilities in India (and elsewhere) that could be manufacturing vaccines that aren't because they're not allowed to/aren't licensed to/can't afford to etc. Big pharma would rather let Millions of people die than give away the recipes for their vaccines.
It is also very sad that India seems incapable (or unwilling?) of reverse-engineering their own vaccine-development process.  Maybe they are too honest to engage in such 'unethical' activity when their people are literally dying around them; but sometimes necessity should over-ride concern for ethical behavior.


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04 May 2021, 10:30 am

That festival they had in India is apparently like a traditional thing, even people who aren't Hindu's join in apparently because it's fun so no wonder it became a massive super spreader event.

I'm quite shocked that India hasn't developed a vaccine though, a lot of our medicines come from India because they have incredibly intelligent doctors that come out of that country.


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04 May 2021, 10:31 am

Fnord wrote:
goldfish21 wrote:
... It's pretty gross that there are probably facilities in India (and elsewhere) that could be manufacturing vaccines that aren't because they're not allowed to/aren't licensed to/can't afford to etc. Big pharma would rather let Millions of people die than give away the recipes for their vaccines.
It is also very sad that India seems incapable (or unwilling?) of reverse-engineering their own vaccine-development process.  Maybe they are too honest to engage in such 'unethical' activity when their people are literally dying around them; but sometimes necessity should over-ride concern for ethical behavior.


Maybe they're not concerned?

They do operate under a Caste System. The ultra wealthy are leaving on $20,000.00 flights to the UK and UAE. The majority of those getting sick and dying are bound to be poorer "lower," caste people of no concern to the wealthy professional & political classes.


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04 May 2021, 10:32 am

goldfish21 wrote:
...Complacency and underestimating Covid...
Somehow I am reminded of the U.S....44% have vaccination first-dose, 32% fully vaccinated. Vaccination rates dropping. Let's declare success and re-open! :silent:


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04 May 2021, 10:35 am

goldfish21 wrote:
Fnord wrote:
goldfish21 wrote:
... It's pretty gross that there are probably facilities in India (and elsewhere) that could be manufacturing vaccines that aren't because they're not allowed to/aren't licensed to/can't afford to etc. Big pharma would rather let Millions of people die than give away the recipes for their vaccines.
It is also very sad that India seems incapable (or unwilling?) of reverse-engineering their own vaccine-development process.  Maybe they are too honest to engage in such 'unethical' activity when their people are literally dying around them; but sometimes necessity should over-ride concern for ethical behavior.


Maybe they're not concerned?

They do operate under a Caste System. The ultra wealthy are leaving on $20,000.00 flights to the UK and UAE. The majority of those getting sick and dying are bound to be poorer "lower," caste people of no concern to the wealthy professional & political classes.


The Caste system they have there means a lot will die anyway sadly. The lower caste are called the untouchables, they do things like body disposal and cleaning feces off the streets, they can literally never become anything else or they'll get shot basically. The untouchable girls basically get raped and then thrown away by the different caste levels, they treat them like human garbage it's disgusting. Even dogs get treated better.

I don't really see much hope for them in this situation to be honest unless a humanitarian outsider comes in to help them.


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04 May 2021, 10:44 am

Lunella wrote:
goldfish21 wrote:
Fnord wrote:
goldfish21 wrote:
... It's pretty gross that there are probably facilities in India (and elsewhere) that could be manufacturing vaccines that aren't because they're not allowed to/aren't licensed to/can't afford to etc. Big pharma would rather let Millions of people die than give away the recipes for their vaccines.
It is also very sad that India seems incapable (or unwilling?) of reverse-engineering their own vaccine-development process.  Maybe they are too honest to engage in such 'unethical' activity when their people are literally dying around them; but sometimes necessity should over-ride concern for ethical behavior.


Maybe they're not concerned?

They do operate under a Caste System. The ultra wealthy are leaving on $20,000.00 flights to the UK and UAE. The majority of those getting sick and dying are bound to be poorer "lower," caste people of no concern to the wealthy professional & political classes.


The Caste system they have there means a lot will die anyway sadly. The lower caste are called the untouchables, they do things like body disposal and cleaning feces off the streets, they can literally never become anything else or they'll get shot basically. The untouchable girls basically get raped and then thrown away by the different caste levels, they treat them like human garbage it's disgusting. Even dogs get treated better.

I don't really see much hope for them in this situation to be honest unless a humanitarian outsider comes in to help them.


It will never happen because those people and whoever they're associated with will be killed for rocking the boat.

I know someone in Canadian law enforcement that has a coworker who's family owns slaves in India. Seems wrong that a Canadian federal law enforcement officer could own slaves in India.. but he says "You don't understand, if we pay them, we will all be killed - my whole family." None of the others in the upper land owning castes want to change the system At All. So the best they can do is be kind to their servants, give them everything they need, not overwork them etc so they have a reasonably comfortable life.


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04 May 2021, 11:13 am

goldfish21 wrote:
Lunella wrote:
goldfish21 wrote:
Fnord wrote:
goldfish21 wrote:
... It's pretty gross that there are probably facilities in India (and elsewhere) that could be manufacturing vaccines that aren't because they're not allowed to/aren't licensed to/can't afford to etc. Big pharma would rather let Millions of people die than give away the recipes for their vaccines.
It is also very sad that India seems incapable (or unwilling?) of reverse-engineering their own vaccine-development process.  Maybe they are too honest to engage in such 'unethical' activity when their people are literally dying around them; but sometimes necessity should over-ride concern for ethical behavior.


Maybe they're not concerned?

They do operate under a Caste System. The ultra wealthy are leaving on $20,000.00 flights to the UK and UAE. The majority of those getting sick and dying are bound to be poorer "lower," caste people of no concern to the wealthy professional & political classes.


The Caste system they have there means a lot will die anyway sadly. The lower caste are called the untouchables, they do things like body disposal and cleaning feces off the streets, they can literally never become anything else or they'll get shot basically. The untouchable girls basically get raped and then thrown away by the different caste levels, they treat them like human garbage it's disgusting. Even dogs get treated better.

I don't really see much hope for them in this situation to be honest unless a humanitarian outsider comes in to help them.


It will never happen because those people and whoever they're associated with will be killed for rocking the boat.

I know someone in Canadian law enforcement that has a coworker who's family owns slaves in India. Seems wrong that a Canadian federal law enforcement officer could own slaves in India.. but he says "You don't understand, if we pay them, we will all be killed - my whole family." None of the others in the upper land owning castes want to change the system At All. So the best they can do is be kind to their servants, give them everything they need, not overwork them etc so they have a reasonably comfortable life.


Yeah I understand, I have seen similar before, the only way to look after them is to go with the flow but make sure you've improved their quality of life - at least he owns them because if not for him it would be someone else and they could be totally evil to them.

I guess you can't really do much as the issue is far too sensitive over there. They literally get shot or hung for bothering someone on the upper caste. It's so wrong and narcissistic the whole thing.

A lot of them are mass converting to Islam because they realise if they become Muslim they don't have to be as much of an untouchable anymore apparently because in Islam there is no ranks and the other Muslims help them out as that's their duty so their life does become a tiny bit easier.

Have a read it's quite interesting. https://www.csmonitor.com/1981/0730/073047.html


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04 May 2021, 11:17 am





Here'S A Deal We've
Globalized to Harm,
Rape, Maim, Kill Balance
On Earth's Nature Now MaKinG

Money Off Blood Sweat

And Tears of the Lesser

Both Nature And Each Other Same

So What's The Problem Here Nature Gifted

Us With Love We've Spit It Out And Nature Is Throwing Us Up...

When We Use Each Other

As Tools And Become

The Tools We Lose

All That Ever

Brought Us to This

Place of Harming, Raping,
Maiming, Killing, The Rest of

Nature's Balance Ironically Cooperative

At First Love Transforming NoW iNTo

An Unfeeling Beast And Economic

Statue of All That Stands Cold For

Trump, DeSantis, And Mini-Trump-me Gaetz

Trinity oF ALL Three New Leaders of 'The Religion'

All 'Florida Men' WHeRE i Live Yes Fools Who Have

Declared The Pandemic Over And Set Their People

Free to

Kill

Each

Other Again

With Cold EYes of Steel...

DeSantis Is Forgetting The Ignorance

(Not Really, He Just Don't Give A Trump F)

Of His Followers Fool Enough to Follow

Him And Disavow Life Saving Vaccines As

Well Those Who Love And Cooperate Will Continue to Inherit the Earth...

Meanwhile In Hell, The Overlords on Earth Continue to Eat Their Dead...

The Shark Will Continue To Swim And Eat for Over 400 MiLLioN Years...

After Over 300 MiLLioN Years Dragonflies Will Fly Over And Roaches

Will Crawl Under And Eat

The Remains

of the

Human

Folly As 'Godzilla'

ALWaYS Returns Doing Karma...

'Snake' Continues to Consume Its Tale....



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