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MrsPeel
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17 Jan 2021, 7:09 am

Yes, personally I think the word "epidemic" is not appropriate, which is why I put it in quotation marks.

And I find most here would agree with you that the increase is due to wider diagnosis - but I am interested in how we can know this as the cause? Where is the evidence? What do the experts say?

When I started looking into it, wider diagnosis (although a significant factor) seemed not to be the whole story.



kraftiekortie
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17 Jan 2021, 7:24 am

No doubt!

No doubt we must enquire.

It’s not the “whole story”—but it is many chapters of it.

There is the recognition of the possible existence of the Broad Autism Phenotype, where a genetic causation is implied.



Dylanperr
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07 Apr 2021, 7:29 pm

Autism is both underdiagnosed and overdiagnosed.

A lot of people who have "autism" are called autistic because they happen to have a low iq or can't speak. I actually saw people who don't even have a trait of autism in them and are diagnosed as autistic because they simply can't talk, and it is estimated that 30 percent of people diagnosed with autism didn't even have autism in the first place. Autism is also very underdiagnosed as well because most females with autism go undiagnosed so it is likely that 30 percent of autistic people who are undiagnosed should be.



Edna3362
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07 Apr 2021, 9:44 pm

Dylanperr wrote:
Autism is both underdiagnosed and overdiagnosed.

A lot of people who have "autism" are called autistic because they happen to have a low iq or can't speak. I actually saw people who don't even have a trait of autism in them and are diagnosed as autistic because they simply can't talk, and it is estimated that 30 percent of people diagnosed with autism didn't even have autism in the first place. Autism is also very underdiagnosed as well because most females with autism go undiagnosed so it is likely that 30 percent of autistic people who are undiagnosed should be.

Not sure how often or widespread...

But I do know there are places where cases that are knowingly not really actually autism cases, gets autism diagnosis for support access.

The autism diagnosis is just a formality or for legal purposes. Likely to access medical facilities, educational and social accomodations.
While the real condition isn't in the spectrum and may remain unknown.


I wonder myself how many systems around the world would do this? And the odds of this vs genuine misdiagnosis.


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carlos55
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08 Apr 2021, 7:58 am

Autism is just a 1940’s parking space to dump people and give a label to those who’s brain works in a non NT way with deficits in function.

There’s at present no biological marker for autism so it’s just diagnosed on subjective traits, often to access disability services.

One day things may be different and they will be split into the relevant causes but for now I suppose we just have to deal with it.



ASPartOfMe
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09 Apr 2021, 8:02 am

If they are going to go with this why not “autism pandemic”, autism is not limited to Europe and America.(sarcasm).


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MrsPeel
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14 May 2021, 8:57 pm

A new study of autism incidence / diagnoses out of Japan:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamane ... le/2779443

Quote:
A recent large-scale birth cohort study in Denmark reported that the diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is increasing and that its future cumulative incidence could exceed 2.8%.1 In Japan, 3 recent cohort studies2-4 have consistently reported prevalence or incidence of ASD exceeding 3%. The question may arise: do these relatively high figures compared with worldwide data (eTable in the Supplement) represent the nationwide incidence in Japan? To answer this question, we analyzed the data from the National Database (NDB) of Health Insurance Claims of Japan.5 We examined the geographical variations in the incidence of ASD and calculated the nationwide cumulative incidence of ASD in Japan.


Quote:
This study found that the nationwide cumulative incidence of ASD was comparable with what has been reported in local cohorts2,4 and that the diagnosis of ASD increased in Japan between 2009 and 2019. Expanding public awareness may have contributed to the increased nationwide incidence, whereas the regional variation may be because of other etiological and nonetiological (eg, accessibility to services) factors. Our findings indicate an important need for further health services and etiologic research.

Several limitations must be noted.(deleted by me for conciseness)

Despite the limitations, this study found that the incidence of ASD in Japan was higher than what has been reported worldwide. The results bring attention to the necessity of developing support systems to meet the needs of an increasing number of individuals diagnosed with ASD.


I think they're putting incidence in Japan at around 2.4% (about 1 in 44) - but there's no assessment of causes of the increase except mention of expanding public awareness as a possible contributing factor.

The authors all have links with pharmaceutical companies.



Jiheisho
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14 May 2021, 9:21 pm

MrsPeel wrote:
A new study of autism incidence / diagnoses out of Japan:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamane ... le/2779443

Quote:
A recent large-scale birth cohort study in Denmark reported that the diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is increasing and that its future cumulative incidence could exceed 2.8%.1 In Japan, 3 recent cohort studies2-4 have consistently reported prevalence or incidence of ASD exceeding 3%. The question may arise: do these relatively high figures compared with worldwide data (eTable in the Supplement) represent the nationwide incidence in Japan? To answer this question, we analyzed the data from the National Database (NDB) of Health Insurance Claims of Japan.5 We examined the geographical variations in the incidence of ASD and calculated the nationwide cumulative incidence of ASD in Japan.


Quote:
This study found that the nationwide cumulative incidence of ASD was comparable with what has been reported in local cohorts2,4 and that the diagnosis of ASD increased in Japan between 2009 and 2019. Expanding public awareness may have contributed to the increased nationwide incidence, whereas the regional variation may be because of other etiological and nonetiological (eg, accessibility to services) factors. Our findings indicate an important need for further health services and etiologic research.

Several limitations must be noted.(deleted by me for conciseness)

Despite the limitations, this study found that the incidence of ASD in Japan was higher than what has been reported worldwide. The results bring attention to the necessity of developing support systems to meet the needs of an increasing number of individuals diagnosed with ASD.


I think they're putting incidence in Japan at around 2.4% (about 1 in 44) - but there's no assessment of causes of the increase except mention of expanding public awareness as a possible contributing factor.

The authors all have links with pharmaceutical companies.


In 2020, the CDC estimated the prevalence of autism in the US adult population at 1 in 45, or 2.2 percent. So, the Japanese number is not much different.

Link: Key Findings: CDC Releases First Estimates of the Number of Adults Living with Autism Spectrum Disorder in the United States

Also, there is not a lot of research to whether certain countries have different ASD rates. The CDC showed that ASD prevalence varied in the US.



Jiheisho
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14 May 2021, 9:23 pm

MrsPeel wrote:
The authors all have links with pharmaceutical companies.


Here are the authors affiliations:

Department of Psychiatry, Shinshu University School of Medicine, Matsumoto, Nagano, Japan

Department of Child and Adolescent Developmental Psychiatry, Shinshu University School of Medicine, Matsumoto, Nagano, Japan

Mental Health Clinic for Children, Shinshu University Hospital, Matsumoto, Nagano, Japan