Majority of Republicans Want Trump to Run Again

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Descartes
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23 Oct 2021, 10:13 am

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a- ... ent-again/

In addition, a poll found that 40% of Americans would vote for Trump for president in 2024. It's still way too early to be making predictions for the next presidential election, but I nevertheless find these poll results alarming. 8O


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23 Oct 2021, 11:36 am

In 2016, Five Thirty Eight gave President Trump a 29% chance of winning.

They are also owned by the ABC News network, which is owned by Disneycorp.

I would not trust any “Mickey-Mouse” polls.



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23 Oct 2021, 4:17 pm

Fnord wrote:
In 2016, Five Thirty Eight gave President Trump a 29% chance of winning.

Which was more than most other polls.


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23 Oct 2021, 4:27 pm

My girlfriend and I have been to three Trump rallies.

The first during the 2016 Primary season, in Reno, Nevada.

The second also in Reno, JUST before the 2016 election (this was the rally where the Secret Service had to drag Trump from the stage, because a Republican anti-Trump protestor in the crowd triggered someone to yell "he's got a gun!").

The third, a year or two into his Presidency, in Elko, Nevada.

We went because we saw it as free Political Theater, not as supporters.

I took some photos at the first rally in Reno:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/darronb/a ... 3272187471


Many of these photos ended up being used on websites, much to my amusement:

I must say that these were all fascinating experiences, and I am glad we went.

Darron


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23 Oct 2021, 5:17 pm

IMO, such supporters of the GOP won't realize the fact that he will always be a sore loser
for not being reelected last year in the 2020 election.


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23 Oct 2021, 6:22 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
Fnord wrote:
In 2016, Five Thirty Eight gave President Trump a 29% chance of winning.
Which was more than most other polls.
Which still only proves that poll results are meaningless.



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24 Oct 2021, 3:00 am

This has been discussed here, also:
viewtopic.php?t=400995#p8886216

8)


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24 Oct 2021, 10:09 am

Fnord wrote:
ASPartOfMe wrote:
Fnord wrote:
In 2016, Five Thirty Eight gave President Trump a 29% chance of winning.
Which was more than most other polls.
Which still only proves that poll results are meaningless.

The problem in 2016 was more the people interpreting the polls rather than the polls themselves. In 2016 it seems too many people interpreted the polls based on the false belief that a candidate such as Trump could not win rather than being objective. The average final polls showed Hillary winning the popular vote by 4 percentage points. She won the popular vote by 2.9 percentage points well within the margin of error few bother to read. Of course the popular vote does not decide the election the electoral college does. The electoral college was set up to to give an outsized advantage to states with smaller populations. In recent years this has given the advantage to Republican candidates. It was just 16 years earlier that this advantage worked for Bush within the memory of most people interpreting the polls.

Also the polls showed Trump gaining the last few weeks. Just a few weeks earlier in the polls averaged Hillary leading by 8 or 9 points out of range of the electoral college built in rural bias.

If one looked at a combination of the electoral college rural advantage, the margin of error, and Trump’s momentum one should have come to the conclusion that Trump had more than a reasonable chance of winning.


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24 Oct 2021, 10:29 am

ASPartOfMe wrote:
Fnord wrote:
ASPartOfMe wrote:
Fnord wrote:
In 2016, Five Thirty Eight gave President Trump a 29% chance of winning.
Which was more than most other polls.
Which still only proves that poll results are meaningless.

The problem in 2016 was more the people interpreting the polls rather than the polls themselves. In 2016 it seems too many people interpreted the polls based on the false belief that a candidate such as Trump could not win rather than being objective. The average final polls showed Hillary winning the popular vote by 4 percentage points. She won the popular vote by 2.9 percentage points well within the margin of error few bother to read. Of course the popular vote does not decide the election the electoral college does. The electoral college was set up to to give an outsized advantage to states with smaller populations. In recent years this has given the advantage to Republican candidates. It was just 16 years earlier that this advantage worked for Bush within the memory of most people interpreting the polls.

Also the polls showed Trump gaining the last few weeks. Just a few weeks earlier in the polls averaged Hillary leading by 8 or 9 points out of range of the electoral college built in rural bias.

If one looked at a combination of the electoral college rural advantage, the margin of error, and Trump’s momentum one should have come to the conclusion that Trump had more than a reasonable chance of winning.
Indeed. Also, polls are never "right" or "wrong" any more than meteorological reports are "right" or "wrong". They deal with percentages, which simply indicate likelihood. Besides, any and all data is useful.

It is also worth noting that the following interim election, and the last Presidential election did go according to what the polls were suggesting, meaning that they can usually be used to infer what's going to happen with reasonable accuracy. The 2016 election was an anomaly, plain and simple.
ASPartOfMe wrote:
Fnord wrote:
In 2016, Five Thirty Eight gave President Trump a 29% chance of winning.

Which was more than most other polls.
I seem to recall Nate Silver being highly criticized for that too. The results of the 2016 election actually made Five Thirty Eight my go-to source for US election predictions from that point forward, because they were closer to the mark than anyone else.



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24 Oct 2021, 10:59 am

Tross wrote:
It is also worth noting that the following interim election, and the last Presidential election did go according to what the polls were suggesting, meaning that they can usually be used to infer what's going to happen with reasonable accuracy. The 2016 election was an anomaly, plain and simple.


In some ways the 2016 election was an anomaly Trump had to win the right combination of states. The polls in 2020 did significantly worse than they did in 2016 but few noticed(fivethirtyeight in their post mortems did)because based on them Biden was predicted to win and he did. The final polling averages had Biden winning by eight points or so and he won by four. There has been consistent Republicans doing better then the data in recent years. This has had a major effect on congress where two democrat senators not willing to go along with the plan are gumming up the whole works.

Back to OP the polls have been consistent in showing Trump having massive and loyal support in the Republican party. I have been hearing all sorts of predictions that as the Trump Presidency goes further and further back in history his hold on the party will weaken, not having the twitter platform will weaken his hold on the party etc, etc. I have been hearing various predictions of his political demise since 2015. Yes anything can happen, never say never, but as of now there is always hope but little reason to expect things to change.

As the article said even though we are three years out Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee. The only things that will prevent that is health or imprisonment and I would not be so sure about the latter one, a prisoner can run for Federal office.

Many people including yours truly have been concocting these scenarios whereby Trump steals the election, the Republican state legislators stack the electoral college with Trump loyalists etc. With the polls underestimating Republican candidates if the election were held today it is more than reasonable to say these measures would not be necessary, Trump would win outright.

While the above quarentee nothing about 2024 the dems really need to stop f*****g up. What that entails is a whole different thread.


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Last edited by ASPartOfMe on 24 Oct 2021, 11:45 am, edited 7 times in total.

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24 Oct 2021, 11:18 am

I guess the Democrats had better put up a decent candidate, then. Of course they won't for obvious reasons.


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24 Oct 2021, 11:59 am

VegetableMan wrote:
I guess the Democrats had better put up a decent candidate, then. Of course they won't for obvious reasons.


The Washington Generals aren't supposed to win.
And when they do they need a Sinema or a Lieberman to blame everything on, even though it's all scripted like pro-wrestling.


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24 Oct 2021, 1:10 pm

funeralxempire wrote:
VegetableMan wrote:
I guess the Democrats had better put up a decent candidate, then. Of course they won't for obvious reasons.


The Washington Generals aren't supposed to win.
And when they do they need a Sinema or a Lieberman to blame everything on, even though it's all scripted like pro-wrestling.


It's poltical theatre, yes. There's no way to vote against wall Street, the war machine, and all the other corporate interests.

We can fool ourselves into believing one party is better, but it's a fantasy.


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24 Oct 2021, 1:35 pm

VegetableMan wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
VegetableMan wrote:
I guess the Democrats had better put up a decent candidate, then. Of course they won't for obvious reasons.


The Washington Generals aren't supposed to win.
And when they do they need a Sinema or a Lieberman to blame everything on, even though it's all scripted like pro-wrestling.


It's poltical theatre, yes. There's no way to vote against wall Street, the war machine, and all the other corporate interests.

We can fool ourselves into believing one party is better, but it's a fantasy.


I think this depends on where the focus is. When it comes to economic issues they're basically two wings of the same party, when it comes to social issues sometimes there is a genuine difference that makes the one better. Democrats rely on that to keep people who care about those causes under their big top even though they largely intend on taking advantage of them and the fact that no better option exists.


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Descartes
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25 Oct 2021, 4:27 pm

I wouldn't discount the role sexism played in the 2016 election. I strongly doubt most Americans care about "Wall Street", and Biden easily won 2020 and picked up a couple of red states even though he has a more conservative record than Clinton. I remember hearing this saying, the day a woman loses the job to a man vastly underqualified compared to her is just another Tuesday in America.


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25 Oct 2021, 4:36 pm

Descartes wrote:
I wouldn't discount the role sexism played in the 2016 election. I strongly doubt most Americans care about "Wall Street", and Biden easily won 2020 and picked up a couple of red states even though he has a more conservative record than Clinton. I remember hearing this saying, the day a woman loses the job to a man vastly underqualified compared to her is just another Tuesday in America.


People viscerally dislike Hillary Clinton and it isn't all motivated by sexism.


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